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Risk analysis in capital investment primarily evaluates the likelihood of variability in future returns. This is crucial for investors and management, as it helps assess the potential risks associated with an investment decision. By understanding the uncertainty of future cash flows and returns, businesses can better prepare for possible adverse outcomes.

Evaluating the likelihood of variability involves analyzing the different factors that can affect future financial performance, including market conditions, economic factors, and competitive landscape. This analysis allows for the identification of potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the success of the investment, enabling informed decision-making.

In contrast, evaluating the currently spent budget focuses on past expenditures rather than future projections. The overall market share pertains to a company's position in the market but does not directly inform about the risks linked with specific investments. Similarly, assessing the historical performance of investments provides insights into prior success or failures but does not adequately reflect the complexities and uncertainties of future investments. Thus, the emphasis on future variability in returns makes it a key aspect of risk analysis in capital investment.