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What technique is used to determine the maximum potential gain or loss for a given level of confidence?

Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

Value at Risk (VaR)

Value at Risk (VaR) is a financial metric that quantifies the potential loss that an investment or portfolio could experience over a defined period for a given confidence interval. Essentially, VaR answers the question of how much you can expect to lose, with a certain level of confidence, under normal market conditions. It is often expressed as a dollar amount or percentage loss and is widely utilized by risk management professionals to assess the risk of investment portfolios.

For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day VaR of $1 million at a 95% confidence level, this means there is a 95% likelihood that the portfolio will not lose more than $1 million on that day. This technique is crucial for financial analysts and managers to understand and manage risk effectively, allowing for informed decision-making regarding investment strategies.

The other options—Expected Monetary Value, Net Present Value, and Internal Rate of Return—do not serve this specific purpose of measuring potential risk in dollar terms. EMV is used more for decision-making under uncertainty, considering the probability of various outcomes, while NPV and IRR are focused on evaluating the profitability of investments rather than quantifying risk.

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Net Present Value (NPV)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

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